Solar Forecast bug

I noticed what appears to be a bug in the solar forecast yesterday on the VRM dashboard.

Throughout the hour the total forecast rises, then on the hour it drops down, then repeats, almost like it’s adding what’s already been generated for that hour plus the total forecast for that hour, but I’m not sure the sums add up for that.

This screenshot was taken at 13:59

The current total generated for the day is 21.6 kWh, and the forecasted total was for 30.2, but the remaining 3 hour period did not add up to 8.6kWh.

Then at 14:00 it did this.

It dropped all the way down to a total forecast of 23.7 kWh

Fast forward to 14:58 and its back up to 31.2 kWh

and you’ve guessed it, at 15:00 we drop back to 26.6 kWh forecasted total.

We did actually end the day on 29.2, so it wasn’t far out, but it just seems odd that it will drop down on the hour, then gradually build up for the hour, only to drop down on the next hour.

I’m surprised no one has commented, I’m still seeing large changes in forecast on the hour.

I’ve seen the forecast jump around as well. I never get any solar before 6am, but the forecast keeps forecasting solar before 6. Perhaps it depends on the location and the accuracy for the weather forecast for that location? Or is the forecast solely based on previous performance?

Its not early morning forecast, its the forecast changing a lot on the hour every hour during daylight.

@guystewart I’ve tagged you as this needs looking into please.

Look at my first post, in the first example at 13:59 the forecast was for 30.2 kWh of solar that day, a minute later at 14:00 it dropped to 23.7 kWh forecast.

I see this happen every day, what’s reported at 1 minute to the hour, is substantially more than what’s reported exactly on the hour. If you add the bars up in the chart, then it doesn’t add up to the predicted amount at the bottom, there is a bug somewhere.