Yes, for me as well. For about 6-7 days now. Very happy, but I must learn to trust it now… Also very curious to find out what the issue was.
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Well, i have experienced that human behavior (that is responsible for consumption) is more predictable than the weather forecast, but that aside, the forecast values are really off and should be investigated.
In my case i have East/West setup with 39 panels 17550Wp, and the forecast fits mostly and never got that far off from the start.
I have only one inverter SMA Tripower 15-50 connected to the network and communicates with modbus, updates every second.
I am curious how many inverters you all have installed and what types and how they transfer the values to the Victron.
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This should not matter at all for this issue since if this issue happens it more or less switches to “wrong” mode without any change on inverter side. Also not weather changes or shadow changes etc. Victron just decides within an hour (or whatever their updatefequency is) that your energy (not the solar irradiance) has to be 2 up to 6 times higher then before). Interestingly I had never just 50% or <20% of the correct forecast so it was always going uphill direction.
I assume they have wrong data queries or tried to build compensation factors which are not working.
What do I mean with compensation factor:
Assume your original forecast is 1kWh for 9-10am assuming cloudy weather. Then you measure 3kWh in reality (weather better than forecasted). So 3 times higher, now you multiply each future hour with this factor 3 assuming the beaviour will be the same.
Whatever it is only Victron knows hoping they fix it permanently. If they don’t tell us which input values they use for calculation we can only guess.
Nevertheless - my main inverters are SMA ones (19kWp) direct IP connected as yours. Plus some smaller (0.5 + 1.8kWp) via MQTT every 10s update.
Todays result
forecast has only minimal deviation from actual measured. Sometime bit less sometimes more per hour.
i was trying solar.forecast and solcast api’s direct, mind you the solcast free hobbyist version where you can still specify how many kW of panels you have. i have 12kw of panels, yet tomorrow some hours im getting a 14kW solcast prediction. there is no one perfect provider.
I hope to not hijack this thread but I’m currently looking at my forecast and I really don’t understand why it’s forecasting more than I could ever produce, given I only have a 100/50 at 12v, so forecast should know that and cap the production at 700w tops:
I too am looking at my forecast and see the discrepancy. Could it be that server issue reported by victron causing this issue? My solar forecasts have been steady until yesterday when I saw this
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Yes, it must be an issue with the estimations, they were steady for me too, and now if I do the weekly forecast it’s overestimating like exactly 2x to 3x, I will ignore it until it gets settled, thanks for your input Cornelius, much appreciated.
Since today it seems to be wrong again. Same here for today but for tomorrow it is the opposite (with the same solar irridiance forecast).
But also price display for tomorrow looks weired. Looks like they are patching VRM currently.
DESS solar forecast looks ok but price curve looks strange
It got fixed at my end, amazing response times, thank you!
Edit: weekly forecast is still broken, estimating my next days as +8 kWh, as you can see 2.51 kWh is accurate for today, if I see individual intra day charts, they are ok.
For me since this afternoon looks okish again
weekly looks a bit to pessimistic but I dont care as long as the forecast is OK the evening before latest in the early morning
All is looking great again in both daily and weekly forecast, thanks for the quick resolution!
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If this is the wrong thread I apologize. My solar forecast doesn’t work … kind of. It did work but stopped working a while back
I think there is awareness of the forecast and past data collection. I used to have data in the bar graph … I even used the Next 2 Days previously. I have a solar forecast under Irradiance. I just no longer get a solar/consumption forecast in the bar chart anymore.
I reset Forecasts several times. I’ve moved my location several times … I even relocated to Greece temporarily as I saw on a post.
Again apologies if I’m in the wrong thread and I can start a new thread if desired
Yepp I think this should be dedicated new thread - maybe then you also get an answer to your issue in case it still exists. This thread should apply only for forecasts which are factors off. Your case shows no forecast at all which should be a different issue.
@dognose and the victron staff:
I just wanted to let you know that there might be a new issue approaching. Yesterday morning I noticed that the solar forecast data for day 6 was missing in the ‘next 7 days’ view. I thought it was a minor issue and of no further relevance. Today however the data for day 5 & 6 was missing, so the issue seems to be ‘spreading’.
All 7 installations that I have access to are affected in the same way.
Best regards, Jochen
Update 24h later: Now 3 days are missing and my impression is, that the remaining data for day 0 - day 3 is not updated any more. The values have remained identical (or at least very similar).
Am I the only user affected?
Best regards, Jochen
I confirm the same on my installation, in the last few days the forecast for today and tomorrow on other forecast websites changed on rainy, in fact today is raining and production is really low, but the forecast on VRM is still the same as three days ago, so very high for today and tomorrow.
I have identical data. It is completely clouded and rainy today but still VRM is thinking I will produce proper solar power…
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Just checked my 7 day forecast and the solar forecast is there for every day.
Same issue on my installation