Dynamic ESS PV forecast broken

Is there a known issue with PV forecasting at the moment? I saw a post from another user whose PV forecast wasn’t working but there were no replies.

My PV forecast was fine until a few days ago, now the forecast is always zero, causing DESS to put too much into the batteries overnight from the grid and then sending PV to grid during the day because the batteries reach 100% way too soon.

I’ve tried re-setting my location but this doesn’t seem to make any difference. Consumption forecasting still works fine.

Literally as I posted this it seems to be working again. Will keep an eye over it in the next few days. If anyone from Victron could confirm that this was a bug on their end then it would be nice to know.

Looks like I spoke too soon. When I checked yesterday afternoon I had a PV forecast for today and a sensible charging schedule. Today the PV forecast is zero for the whole day and again the system has charged too much overnight.

How long has the system been working?

I can confirm these issues - it’s been working fine for many months but since Friday 20th the PV forecast didn’t show up for the next day so Dynamic ESS was planning to charge my battery from the grid. Luckily at midnight the PV forecast for yesterday was there again but today the PV forecast has disappeared once more.

Today is a 100% sunny day so a bell-shaped PV production curve can be expected :wink:


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Things are looking good for me. Next week the forecast will go down but the weather report is also bad. I couldn’t have judged it any better myself

It’s been working for around 6 months, the problems with the PV forecast only started in the last few days.

EDIT: I wonder if Victron have changed something recently? I saw another topic mentioning that their system was charging too much overnight whenever rain was forecast. Rain has also been forecast here over the last few days but it hasn’t really happened. Still, I wouldn’t expect rain to give a zero PV forecast - there would still be some output from the PV.

Side note for @Sarowe1990: your VRM portal ID can be seen in your screenshots - I would not make that public in your case! It will vanish as soon as you give your installation a custom name on VRM portal.

And here’s my missing weekly forecast:

I guess there might be a problem with the communication between Victron and Solcast, maybe service congestion / overload.

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I concur. I do have my own PV forecast source via solcast rooftop in parallel and numbers do match these in VRM within a 5-10% range as usual.
However, although something has been reported as improvement approx. 2 weeks ago, my consumption forecast is totally wrong.

FYI: the utilization of Solcast PV forecast by Victron is no secret - it has been publically announced a while ago:

the last days, every evening the forecast for the solar production disappears.

17:18 2024-09-22

20:00 2024-09-22

I seem to have a similar issue. I have 6 victron systems under controll. For systems with victron mppt everything is fine. Pv forecast is available. For other systems where i have a plug in to load external PV data no or very little forecast is seen suddenly.
This started few days ago

I also don’t have a forecast since September 19. The week before we had heavy rain and the forcast was very off for a few days (predicted solar was way too high). Maybe that derailed the forcast for this week.

Interesting - my system is 100% AC-coupled too and PV data is being injected into the Multiplus GX via dbus-OpenDTU plugin: GitHub - henne49/dbus-opendtu: Integrate opendtu and ahoy into Victron Energies Venus OS as a pv inverter

Same here, no solar forecast since last week. I am using a CT sensor connected to Aux1 on my MP-II.
The usage of the Solar panels is registered just fine, but no forecast is available. The usage forecast however is present in the VRM portal. The result is that DESS is unusable for me at the moment

I’m also using a CT sensor for AC PV. It could be relevant.

@dfaber just making sure you’ve seen this topic as the issue is affecting multiple users.

it just started working again!

Yes, that’s true :+1: Let’s see how long it will persist…

Hi,

We just corrected solar forecast; a change in the model made solar forecast 0 for hours in which MPPT is off, which was the case for the sites mentioned here.

Thank you for raising it!

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