Hi, noted that for today, solar forecast is as high as for a regular sunny day.
weather in VRM Portal shows rain (and weather forecast is 100% rain for the day).
Is this really not taken into account when predicting the solar production?
Welcome to the community forums.
I think the weather is taken into account, however it may be one of the trickiest factors to take into account.
At least for my case, the curve usually looks “the same”, but when looking at it in detail it’s much lower values, the graphs axis is just scaled different.
My prediction on a sunny day is usually ~ 80-90 kWh, today it is 47 kWh - and from passt experience these values are quiet accurate usually something like 5kWh off at worst.
Check the values bottom right, they should be much lower depending on weather:
I have to say that too. Despite all my criticism of the consumption forecast, the production forecast is really, really good and takes the weather into account very, very well.
@dfaber Weather is definitely not considered enough in the solar forecast!
Here is the weather for today and the next two days.
And the solar forecast:
The PV doesn’t even produce 10 kWh a day in this weather, the forecast is for more than 20 kWh.
This was SOC today, tomorrow it will be not better:
But the SOC forecast is this:
Did you set a proper location in VRM, so the system knows which weather to use?
Yes!
Taking into account, that DESS and its forecast algorithm is still in in an early state, we will most likely see improvements step by step.
Nevertheless, my observation is somehow similar in my location. It seems, like the weather forecast (and indirect the solar yield forecast) in services like wetteronline.de for Germany are more granular and therefore more precise. I had days, where the whole day had a cloudy forecast with no sun in wetteronline.de and DESS expected a huge yield.
Sometimes, it’s a question of only a few kilometers west or east between a cloudy and a sunny day.
I have on a few occasions also thought (looking at the sky) that there was no way i would get the forcasted solar. And surprisingly at the end of the day reached the yeild expected.
How new is your system though? In the beginning mine wasn’t great. But as the year has passed it is more accurate.
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You are right. It might need some patience. My system is rather new, less than a month. Will leave D-ESS on to let it learn and adjust to my conditions.
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